Countrywide Foreclosures: November 2007

Last week, Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) released their November Operational Results showing again that delinquencies and foreclosures are continuing to remain at troubling levels with delinquencies climbing 38.73% and foreclosures soaring over 106% since November of 2006.

Prior to January 2007, Countrywide reported foreclosure data as a percentage of the total number of loans serviced which obviously lacked complete clarity.

Below, are charts of both measures; delinquencies and foreclosures by total number of loans serviced and foreclosures by percentage of unpaid loan principle (Click for larger versions).

Either way you slice it, Countrywide is looking at some significant increases in foreclosure activity but notice that for the “unpaid loan principle” method, things are really looking dire.

Be sure to check out the Countrywide Financial Foreclosures Blog’s Inventory Tracker for some more startling evidence that foreclosures are skyrocketing over at Countrywide Financial as well as some excellent REO tracking features.

NARcasting The Future: December 2007

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provided their final approximation of annual existing home sales for 2007 on an “up” beat revising their prior estimate up to 5.67 million housing units sold along with providing both their initial estimate for 2008 as well as, of course, another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

In an effort to put their absurd bias into perspective I compiled all their existing home sales forecasts for 2007 and now 2008 into a chart along with a list of prominent quotes supplied with each forecast.

12/11/2006 Prediction: 6.40 million units.
Lereah "Most of the correction in home prices is behind us."

1/10/2007 Prediction: 6.42 million units.
Lereah "The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."

2/7/2007 Prediction: 6.44 million units.
Lereah "After reaching what appears to be the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, we expect existing-home sales to gradually rise all this year and well into 2008."

3/13/2007 Prediction: 6.42 million units.
Lereah "Although existing-home sales will be marginally reduced due to subprime lending restrictions, they should be gradually rising this year and next."

4/11/2007 Prediction: 6.34 million units.
Lereah "Tighter lending standards will dampen home sales a bit, but by less than a couple of percentage points from initial projections."

4/30/2007
Lereah Leaves NAR for Move.com

5/9/2007 Prediction: 6.29 million units.
Yun "Housing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts."

6/6/2007 Prediction: 6.18 million units.
Yun "Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year."

7/11/2007 Prediction: 6.11 million units.
Yun "Home prices are expected to recover in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year."

8/8/2007 Prediction: 6.04 million units.
Yun “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”

9/11/2007 Prediction: 5.92 million units.
Yun “Patient buyers in most areas who do their homework will recognize that housing remains a good long-term investment.”

10/10/2007 Prediction: 5.78 million units.
Yun "The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains."

11/13/2007 Prediction: 5.5 million units.
Yun "In some ways, the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term high-yield investment… 2007 will be the fifth best year for housing on record"

12/10/2007 Prediction: 5.67 million units.
Yun "The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007."

Countrywide Foreclosures: September 2007

Today, Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) released their August Operational Results showing again that delinquencies and foreclosures are continuing to remain at troubling levels with delinquencies jumping 30.44% and foreclosures soaring 149% since September of 2006.

Prior to January 2007, Countrywide reported foreclosure data as a percentage of the total number of loans serviced which obviously lacked complete clarity.

Below, are charts of both measures; foreclosures by total number of loans serviced and foreclosures by percentage of unpaid loan principle (Click for larger versions).

Either way you slice it, Countrywide is looking at some significant increases in foreclosure activity but notice that for the “unpaid loan principle” method, things are really looking dire.

Be sure to check out the Countrywide Financial Foreclosures Blog’s Inventory Tracker for some more startling evidence that foreclosures are skyrocketing over at Countrywide Financial as well as some excellent REO tracking features.

Countrywide Bankruptcy?

Hmmm… I Wonder what happened to Mozilo, Sambol and Sieracki’s “top-conditioned athlete”?

Today, Merrill Lynch managed to finally downgrade Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) to a “sell” from their recent “buy” stance adding an additional little tidbit that “it is possible for CFC to go bankrupt”.

Great! Thanks… A “Buy” one day, “Sell” it may go bankrupt the next!

Superb Work… I love Wall Street.

On a serious note, you have to wonder how the leadership at Countrywide could have felt so certain of the fundamental strength of their business that they not only suggested that they would survive the downturn but, in fact, stated that the company would actually “benefit” from the inevitable industry consolidation that would ensue from market turmoil.

Were they simply inexperienced, unable to see the true nature of the historic housing run-up and inevitable proportionate bust and prepare the company adequately for possible systemic risk OR was something else afoot?

In any event, yesterday Countrywide released their July Operational Results showing again that delinquencies and foreclosures are continuing to rise with delinquencies jumping 64.58% and foreclosures soaring 126.09% since July of 2006.

Prior to January 2007, Countrywide reported foreclosure data as a percentage of the total number of loans serviced which obviously lacked complete clarity.

Below, are charts of both measures; foreclosures by total number of loans serviced and foreclosures by percentage of unpaid loan principle (Click for larger versions).

Either way you slice it, Countrywide is looking at some significant increases in foreclosure activity but notice that for the “unpaid loan principle” method, things are really looking dire.

Be sure to check out the Countrywide Financial Foreclosures (REO) Blog’s Inventory Tracker for some more startling evidence that foreclosures are skyrocketing over at Countrywide Financial as well as some excellent REO tracking features.

Countrywide Foreclosure

Yesterday, Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) announced that their foreclosure situation was worsening and investors reacted by dumping the stock to the tune of nearly 4%.

At the heart of the matter was Countrywide’s relatively new disclosure that, as a percentage of all unpaid principle, foreclosures had soared, increasing over 113% since last year and standing now at just under 1% of all outstanding principle.

Prior to January 2007, Countrywide reported foreclosure data as a percentage of the total number of loans serviced which obviously lacked complete clarity.

Below, are charts of both measures; foreclosures by total number of loans serviced and foreclosures by percentage of unpaid loan principle (Click for larger versions).

Either way you slice it, Countrywide is looking at some significant increases in foreclosure activity but notice that for the “unpaid loan principle” method, things are really looking dire.

Be sure to check out the Countrywide Financial Foreclosures (REO) Blog’s Inventory Tracker for some more startling evidence that foreclosures are skyrocketing over at Countrywide Financial as well as some excellent REO tracking features.