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Tampilkan postingan dengan label David Lereah. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label David Lereah. Tampilkan semua postingan

Crash and Burn!

Senin, 30 April 2007


Oh for Kripes sake!

My server has bit the dust!

No BNN… No Bubble Times… No S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Charting Tool… No Inventory Tracking Tool… Not even a stinking OFHEO Chart… Nothin’…

But, not to worry.

I’m working diligently to get all the issues resolved and should have the system restored in a couple of days.

For now though, let me spotlight some of my favorite blogs that offer similar services to the ones now absent from my blog.

First, for BNN-style video-blogging there is both the Real Estate Video Blog and the New York City Housing Blog with daily video posts of all things bubbly.

For S&P/Case-Shiller and OFHEO charts as well as a host of other really impressive charts check out Housing Bubble Bust.

For Bubble Times-esc and Digg-styled Housing Bubble news you can turn to Housing Bubble News Central and Speculative Bubble.

Of course, Ill still be blogging throughout these trying times and Ill certainly be sure to yell from the highest rooftop when everything is all back up and running.

Wish me luck!



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PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com
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Lereah’s Fat Balloons

Kamis, 12 April 2007

I’m really starting to worry about this guy.

Imagine what it must feel like to have risen to such heights of success, both professionally and on a more personal metaphorical level, having achieved almost unparalleled success, save possibly for that of Greenspan, in the apparent pursuit of grotesquely inflating the nations housing markets only to stand by helplessly and watch the whole thing go shebang!

It’s obviously having an effect on the poor mans psyche.

Witness this video clip of him sitting in a Lakeland Florida hotel lobby, obviously trying to keep a stiff upper lip while rambling on about his new DNA theory of housing, the great “buyers” markets of Boston and Providence and the “hot” markets in the Smoky Mountains.

The piece sadly ends with Lereah attempting to educate CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla on the ins and outs of the nations “Fat Balloons”.

Oh! how the mighty have fallen!

I half expected him to sign-off that segment by making one of those old-time cartoon cuckoo gestures while singing “Hello my baby, hello my honey, hello my ragtime gal!”

Then yesterday came possibly the hardest blow to date.

In a press release entitled “Tighter Lending Standards Good for Housing, But Will Dampen Sales” Lereah had to admit that things are getting considerably worse for the nations housing market.

“Tighter lending standards will dampen home sales a bit, but by less than a couple of percentage points from initial projections.”

More importantly, Lereah now expects the national median existing-home price to decline by 0.7% this year while existing-home sales will total only 6.34 million as compared to the 6.48 million home sales in 2006.

If this prediction were to come true, it would be the FIRST ANNUAL DECLINE to the national median existing-home price ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors.

To put this in better perspective, the smallest annual increase to the national median existing-home price ever recorded to date was in 2006 at 2.0%.

Additionally, Lereah is expecting new home sales to plummet to 904,000 from the 1.05 million sales in 2006.

So what’s next for Lereah?

Possibly a new edition of his book entitled “Why All Real Estate Keeps Following ME!: - And How I Just Can’t Get Away From It… Dammit! Stay Back! You Filthy Fat Balloons!”

For an always up-to-date take on the life and times of this truly unusual character read the ever popular David Lereah Watch Blog!



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The Trouble with Lereah

Jumat, 06 April 2007

Well, David Lereah’s new book is officially out… slightly modified subtitle from what fellow BubbleMeter blogger reported last fall but likely the same overall concept, namely how to profit from residential real estate.

In fact, that theme seems so essential to Lereah that it has, in one form or another, worked its way onto the front cover of every real estate book he has ever written.

First, there was his 2005 release titled “Are You Missing the Real Estate BOOM? Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade-And How You Can Profit From Them.”

Then quickly came the 2006 revision, “Why The Real Estate BOOM Will Not BUST – and How You Can Profit From It.”

Finally, now his newest installment “All Real Estate Is Local: What You Need to Know to Profit in Real Estate - in a Buyer's and a Seller's Market.”

Having not read any of his books, I’m certainly not qualified to make any real criticism of them, but what I do know is that Lereah has worked vigorously to promote the idea of profiting from residential real estate.

What’s wrong with that you say? This is America isn’t it?

Even if Lereah were to use every available means at his disposal to promote half-truths in an effort to create viral hype in the nations home buying population, isn’t that his right?

Buyer beware ... There’s a sucker born every minute and the like.

Well, I’d argue that Lereah and the National Association of Realtors have actually crossed significant ethical boundaries in an endeavor that I see as essentially analogous to the less-than-principled process of home sales itself, but on a grand scale.

We are all keenly aware of the extent to which many real estate agents will go to “make the deal happen” regardless of the fallout to the parties involved.

But in this case, what’s at stake is not a quick commission on the part of the agent or a reasonable deal for the buyer or seller; it’s the stability of the American economy and the future for many millions of its residents.

By narrating the events of the nations housing market in an “always and excessively favorable” light, the NAR and Lereah, through a lazy and willing traditional media, have played an important role in driving the “flipper nation” to the stratospheric heights that peaked in 2005.

Remember, the NAR is not a new organization.

It’s nearly 100 years old and as such has been collecting and analyzing housing data for many decades.

All the NAR leadership, including Lereah, are well aware of the fact that, in general, residential real estate appreciates roughly in line with inflation and incomes providing a reasonably stable, long term, “investment” but far from the “profit-laden” thrill ride they have made it out to be in recent years.

As Lereah himself stated last year, “Keep in mind that over time, home prices rise at the rate of inflation plus one-to-two percentage points -- buyers in most of the country who plan to stay in their home for a normal period of homeownership can pretty well bank on those historic averages, but people who purchased last year with the intent of flipping are likely to get burned.”



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